Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hepatitis B and C elimination: An EASL survey.

Background & Aims: The World Health Organization (WHO) HBV and HCV elimination targets, set in 2016 and based on projections to 2030, were unable to consider the impact of intervening factors. To evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on viral hepatitis elimination programs, the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) conducted a survey in liver centers worldwide in 2021. Methods: A web-based questionnaire was distributed (May-July 2021) to all EASL members representing clinical units providing HBV and HCV hepatitis care. Results are expressed as absolute numbers and reduction rates for each care activity. Results: Data were collected from 32 European and 12 non-European clinical centers. Between January 2019 (pre-pandemic) and December 2020 (during the pandemic), chronic HBV consultations decreased by 32% and 26%, new referrals by 38% and 39%, HBV testing rates by 39% and 21% (for HBsAg detection) and 30% and 22% (for HBV DNA detection), and new HBV treatments by 20% and 44% (p = 0.328) in European and non-European centers, respectively. With regard to HCV during the same time frame, the overall reductions were 39% and 50% for consultations, 49% and 49% for new referrals, 11% and 38% for HCV RNA detection, and 51% and 54% for new HCV antiviral treatments for European and non-European Centers, respectively (p = 0.071). Conclusions: All steps in the viral hepatitis care cascade have been hampered by the COVID-19 pandemic, with a comparable impact across different centers. These data reaffirm the pandemic's major effect on global viral hepatitis elimination programs and suggest that actions to achieve the WHO 2030 targets should be reconsidered and revised to account for each country's progress relative to pre-pandemic values. Lay summary: The EASL multinational survey conclusively shows that viral hepatitis elimination programs, expected to provide control of hepatitis B and hepatitis C worldwide by 2030, have been held back by the COVID-19 pandemic in clinical centers from several European and non-European countries, with a comparable impact across centers. Limitations in the cascade of care for both HBV and HCV were linked to limited access to screening, consultations, specific testing, and actual treatment. As restrictions for COVID-19 begin to lift, efforts to diagnose and provide treatment for viral hepatitis should remain high on the list of priorities for public health officials to maintain the WHO elimination efforts. Measures that have been put in place to control the COVID-19 pandemic could be transferred to increasing the diagnosis and linkage to care of people with hepatitis.

PNPLA3 and TLL-1 Polymorphisms as Potential Predictors of Disease Severity in Patients With COVID-19.

Albeit the pathogenesis of COVID-19 remains unclear, host's genetic polymorphisms in genes involved in infection and reinfection, inflammation, or immune stimulation could play a role in determining the course and outcome. We studied in the early phase of pandemic consecutive patients (N = 383) with SARS-CoV-2 infection, whose subsequent clinical course was classified as mild or severe, the latter being characterized by admission to intensive therapy unit or death. Five host gene polymorphisms (MERTK rs4374383, PNPLA3 rs738409, TLL-1 rs17047200, IFNL3 rs1297860, and INFL4 rs368234815) were assessed by using whole nucleic acids extracted from nasopharyngeal swabs. Specific protease cleavage sites of TLL-1 on the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein were predicted in silico. Male subjects and older patients were significantly at higher risk for a severe outcome (p = 0.02 and p < 0.001, respectively). By considering patients ≤65 years, after adjusting for potential confounding due to sex, an increased risk of severe outcome was found in subjects with the GG genotype of PNPLA3 (adj-OR: 4.69; 95% CI = 1.01-22.04) or TT genotype of TLL-1 (adj-OR=9.1; 95% CI = 1.45-57.3). In silico evaluation showed that TLL-1 is potentially involved in the Spike protein cleavage which is essential for viral binding and entry into the host cells using the host receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). Subjects carrying a GG genotype in PNPLA3 gene might have a constitutive upregulation of the NLRP3 inflammasome and be more prone to tissue damage when infected by SARS-CoV-2. The TT genotype in TLL-1 gene might affect its protease activity on the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein, enhancing the ability to infect or re-infect host's cells. The untoward effect of these variants on disease course is evident in younger patients due to the relative absence of comorbidities as determinants of prognosis. In the unresolved pathogenetic scenery of COVID-19, the identification of genetic variants associates with more prolonged course or with a severe outcome of infection would support the development of predictive tools useful to stratify subjects by risk class at presentation. Moreover, the individuation of key genes could contribute to a better understanding of the pathways involved in the pathogenesis, giving the basis for rational therapeutic approaches.

Addressing HCV Elimination Barriers in Italy: Healthcare Resource Utilization and Cost Impact Using 8 Weeks' Glecaprevir/Pibrentasvir Therapy.

INTRODUCTION: In Italy, hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination is achievable; however, barriers remain to achieving the World Health Organization's elimination targets, and have become more pronounced with the spread of COVID-19. Glecaprevir/pibrentasvir (G/P) is a direct-acting antiviral therapy for HCV, approved for 8-week treatment in patients without cirrhosis, and with compensated cirrhosis (CC). Previously, 12 weeks of therapy was recommended for patients with CC. Shortened treatment may reduce the burden on healthcare resources, allowing more patients to be treated. This study presents the benefits that 8-week vs 12-week treatment with G/P may have in Italy. METHODS: A multicohort Markov model was used to assess the collective number of healthcare visits and time on treatment with 8-week vs 12-week G/P in the HCV-infected population of Italy from 2019 to 2030, using healthcare resource data from post-marketing observational studies of G/P. Increased treatment capacity and downstream clinical and economic benefits were also assessed assuming the reallocation of saved healthcare visits to treat more patients. RESULTS: Modeled outcomes showed that by 2030, 8-week treatment saved 27,006 years on therapy compared with 12-week treatment, with 21,065 fewer hepatologist visits. Reallocating these resources to treat more patients could increase capacity to treat 5064 (1.4%) more patients with 8 weeks of G/P, all with CC. This increased treatment capacity would further avoid 2257 cases of end-stage liver disease, 893 liver-related deaths, and provide net savings to the healthcare system of nearly €70 million. CONCLUSION: The modeled comparisons between 8- and 12-week treatment with G/P show that shorter treatment duration can lead to greater time and resource savings, both in terms of healthcare visits and downstream costs. These benefits have the potential to enable the treatment of more patients to overcome elimination barriers in Italy through programs aimed to engage and treat targeted HCV populations.

Guidelines Have a Key Role in Driving HCV Elimination by Advocating for Simple HCV Care Pathways.

The availability of pangenotypic direct-acting antivirals for treatment of hepatitis C (HCV) has provided an opportunity to simplify patient pathways. Recent clinical practice guidelines have recognised the need for simplification to ensure that elimination of HCV as a public health concern remains a priority. Despite the move towards simplified treatment algorithms, there remains some complexity in the recommendations for the management of genotype 3 patients with compensated cirrhosis. In an era where additional clinical trial data are not anticipated, clinical guidance should consider experience gained in real-world settings. Although more experience is required for some pangenotypic therapeutic options, on the basis of published real-world data, there is already sufficient evidence to consider a simplified approach for genotype 3 patients with compensated cirrhosis. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted the need to minimise the need for complex patient pathways and clinical practice guidelines need to continue to evolve in order to ensure that patient outcomes remain optimised.

The impact of direct acting antivirals on hepatitis C virus disease burden and associated costs in four european countries.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We assessed the clinical and economic impact of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) in England, Italy, Romania and Spain. METHODS: An HCV progression Markov model was developed considering DAA eligibility and population data during the years 2015-2019. The period of time to recover the investment in DAAs was calculated as the cost saved by avoiding estimated clinical events for 1000 standardized treated patients. A delayed treatment scenario because of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was also developed. RESULTS: The estimated number of avoided hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensated cirrhosis and liver transplantations over a 20-year time horizon was: 1,057 in England; 1,221 in Italy; 1,211 in Romania; and 1,103 in Spain for patients treated during 2015-2016 and 640 in England; 626 in Italy; 739 in Romania; and 643 in Spain for patients treated during 2017-2019. The cost-savings ranged from € 45 to € 275 million. The investment needed to expand access to DAAs in 2015-2019 is estimated to be recovered in 6.5 years in England; 5.4 years in Italy; 6.7 years in Romania; and 4.5 years in Spain. A delay in treatment because of COVID-19 will increase liver mortality in all countries. CONCLUSION: Direct-acting antivirals have significant clinical benefits and can bring substantial cost-savings over the next 20 years, reaching a Break-even point in a short period of time. When pursuing an exit strategy from strict lockdown measures for COVID-19, providing DAAs should remain high on the list of priorities in order to maintain HCV elimination efforts.

Absolute targets for HCV elimination and national health policy paradigms: Foreseeing future requirements.

The World Health Organization (WHO) targets for eliminating HCV by 2030 may be overambitious for many high-income countries. Recent analyses (ie, data from 2017 to 2019) show that only 11 countries are on track for meeting WHO's elimination targets. For a country to be truly on track, it is important that the majority of infected individuals be identified and treated. There is still a need for country and population-specific evaluations within the different HCV screening and treatment strategies available, in order to assess their cost-effectiveness and sustainability and support an evidence-based policy for HCV elimination. Any health policy model is affected by the diversity and quality of the available data and by gaps in data. Given the differences among countries, comparing progress based on fixed global targets will not necessarily be suitable in the same measure for each country. In a recent document, the European Collaborators of Polaris Observatory provide insight into the limitations of the current WHO targets. The absolute targets identified by each country in accordance with the measures set by WHO would be essential in reaching the HCV elimination. All analytic models to assess the progress towards HCV elimination are based on projections to 2030 not including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hepatitis-related services. With specific regard to the achievement of WHO hepatitis elimination goals, all measures that will be put in place during and after COVID-19 pandemic could be transferred in increasing diagnosis and linkage to care of people with hepatitis.

Impact of COVID-19 on global HCV elimination efforts.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has placed a significant strain on national healthcare systems at a critical moment in the context of hepatitis elimination. Mathematical models can be used to evaluate the possible impact of programmatic delays on hepatitis disease burden. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the incremental change in HCV liver-related deaths and liver cancer, following a 3-month, 6-month, or 1-year hiatus in hepatitis elimination programs. METHODS: Previously developed models were adapted for 110 countries to include a status quo or 'no delay' scenario and a '1-year delay' scenario assuming significant disruption in interventions (screening, diagnosis, and treatment) in the year 2020. Annual country-level model outcomes were extracted, and weighted averages were used to calculate regional (WHO and World Bank Income Group) and global estimates from 2020 to 2030. The incremental annual change in outcomes was calculated by subtracting the 'no-delay' estimates from the '1-year delay' estimates. RESULTS: The '1-year delay' scenario resulted in 44,800 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 43,800-49,300) excess hepatocellular carcinoma cases and 72,300 (95% UI: 70,600-79,400) excess liver-related deaths, relative to the 'no-delay' scenario globally, from 2020 to 2030. Most missed treatments would be in lower-middle income countries, whereas most excess hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related deaths would be among high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of COVID-19 extends beyond the direct morbidity and mortality associated with exposure and infection. To mitigate the impact on viral hepatitis programming and reduce excess mortality from delayed treatment, policy makers should prioritize hepatitis programs as soon as it becomes safe to do so. LAY SUMMARY: COVID-19 has resulted in many hepatitis elimination programs slowing or stopping altogether. A 1-year delay in hepatitis diagnosis and treatment could result in an additional 44,800 liver cancers and 72,300 deaths from HCV globally by 2030. Countries have committed to hepatitis elimination by 2030, so attention should shift back to hepatitis programming as soon as it becomes appropriate to do so.

SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with a normal or abnormal liver.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel coronavirus causing coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19), with an estimated 22 million people infected worldwide so far although involving primarily the respiratory tract, has a remarkable tropism for the liver and the biliary tract. Patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection and no antecedent liver disease may display evidence of cytolytic liver damage, proportional to the severity of COVID-19 but rarely of clinical significance. The mechanism of hepatocellular injury is unclear and possibly multifactorial. The clinical impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with underlying chronic liver disease, a cohort whose global size is difficult to estimate, has been assessed appropriately only recently and data are still evolving. Patients with cirrhosis are at higher risk of developing severe COVID-19 and worse liver-related outcomes as compared to those with non-cirrhotic liver disease. OLT patients have an intermediate risk. Specific interventions in order to reduce the risk of transmission of infection among this high-risk population have been outlined by international societies, together with recommendations for modified treatment and follow-up regimens during the COVID-19 pandemic. When a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 becomes available, patients with fibrotic liver disease and those with OLT should be considered as prime targets for prophylaxis of COVID-19, as all other highly susceptible subjects.

SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load, IFNλ Polymorphisms and the Course of COVID-19: An Observational Study.

The course of SARS-CoV-2 infection ranges from asymptomatic to a multiorgan disease. In this observational study, we investigated SARS-CoV-2 infected subjects with defined outcomes, evaluating the relationship between viral load and single nucleotide polymorphisms of genes codifying for IFNλs (interferon). The study enrolled 381 patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. For each patient, a standardized form was filled including sociodemographic variables and clinical outcomes. The host's gene polymorphisms (IFNL3 rs1297860 C/T and INFL4 rs368234815 TT/ΔG) and RtReal-Time PCR cycle threshold (PCR Ct) value on SARS-CoV-2 were assessed on nasal, pharyngeal or nasopharyngeal swabs. Higher viral loads were found in patients aged > 74 years and homozygous mutant polymorphisms DG in IFNL4 (adj-OR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.01-1.34 and adj-OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.09-1.40, respectively). After adjusting for age and sex, a statistically significantly lower risk of hospitalization was observed in subjects with higher RtReal-Time PCR cycle threshold values (adj-OR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.91, 0.99; p = 0.028). Our data support the correlation between SARS-CoV-2 load and disease severity, and suggest that IFNλ polymorphisms could affect the ability of the host to modulate viral infection without a clear impact on the outcome of COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load, IFNλ Polymorphisms and the Course of COVID-19: An Observational Study

The course of SARS-CoV-2 infection ranges from asymptomatic to a multiorgan disease. In this observational study, we investigated SARS-CoV-2 infected subjects with defined outcomes, evaluating the relationship between viral load and single nucleotide polymorphisms of genes codifying for IFNλs (interferon). The study enrolled 381 patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. For each patient, a standardized form was filled including sociodemographic variables and clinical outcomes. The host’s gene polymorphisms (IFNL3 rs1297860 C/T and INFL4 rs368234815 TT/ΔG) and RtReal-Time PCR cycle threshold (PCR Ct) value on SARS-CoV-2 were assessed on nasal, pharyngeal or nasopharyngeal swabs. Higher viral loads were found in patients aged >74 years and homozygous mutant polymorphisms DG in IFNL4 (adj-OR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.01–1.34 and adj-OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.09–1.40, respectively). After adjusting for age and sex, a statistically significantly lower risk of hospitalization was observed in subjects with higher RtReal-Time PCR cycle threshold values (adj-OR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.91, 0.99;p = 0.028). Our data support the correlation between SARS-CoV-2 load and disease severity, and suggest that IFNλpolymorphisms could affect the ability of the host to modulate viral infection without a clear impact on the outcome of COVID-19.